SCAPE-CA: Spatial Cellular Automata with Patch-based Evolution
Plugin ID: 5090
SCAPE-CA (Spatial Cellular Automata with Patch-based Evolution) is a QGIS plugin designed to simulate land-use and built-up growth using machine learning, cellular automata, patch-based allocation, planning constraints, and ensemble uncertainty analysis.
It enables advanced spatial simulation of urban expansion, land-cover transition, future built-up scenarios, and policy-based growth control using historical raster time series and spatial drivers.
The plugin integrates transition probability modelling, multi-class land-cover learning, spatial plan constraints, demand projection, uncertainty mapping, and automated diagnostic reporting into a unified workflow for urban and regional planning analysis.
It includes:
1. Spatial Cellular Automata Growth Simulator for projecting future built-up and land-cover change.
2. Multi-Class Transition Learning for detecting source land-cover classes that historically convert into built-up areas.
3. Scenario-Based Demand Engine using Auto CAGR, manual targets, population-driven demand, planned built-up capacity, and hybrid plan-constrained demand.
4. Ensemble Simulation Outputs including agreement maps, uncertainty maps, probability surfaces, and smart best-run selection.
5. Automated Diagnostic Reports including validation metrics, multi-resolution FoM, driver contribution, SHAP-style attribution, Bayesian demand posterior, landscape metrics, Markdown report, PNG summary, and professional PDF report.
(1) votes
SCAPE-CA provides a research-grade yet practical framework for simulating urban growth and land-use transition in QGIS.
The system combines machine learning transition probability, cellular automata, patch-based spatial allocation, planning constraints, and explainable diagnostics to support evidence-based spatial planning, RDTR/RTRW evaluation, urban expansion analysis, and scenario-based policy assessment.
The tool is intended for planners, researchers, GIS analysts, and policy analysts who need to explore future spatial growth patterns, evaluate development constraints, identify uncertainty zones, and produce reproducible diagnostic outputs for technical reports and planning documents.
SCAPE-CA is designed as a scenario simulation and decision-support tool. Its outputs should be interpreted as analytical projections based on historical patterns, spatial drivers, demand assumptions, and model parameters, not as deterministic predictions of future land-use change.
