Kent Öngörü - Population Projection and Urban Vulnerability
Two-module planning studio: cohort-component and trend population projection with facility needs and neighbourhood allocation, plus indicator-based flood, heat and earthquake vulnerability (bad-over-good index) with a composite multi-hazard index.
Kent Öngörü ("urban foresight") brings the two questions of a planning studio into one window.
Module 1 - Population projection: cohort-component model (17 age groups by sex, survival ratios, age-specific fertility, optional target TFR, age-profiled net migration); seven trend methods (arithmetic, geometric, exponential, Iller Bankasi, linear regression, quadratic, logistic) each with R-squared and a leave-last-out backtest error; economic base / employment multiplier migration with an optional local labour-supply correction; low / mid / high scenarios; facility area needs from an editable per-capita standard table; neighbourhood allocation by share, planning zone or plan capacity, written to a new styled layer.
Module 2 - Urban vulnerability: every indicator is scored 1-5; indicators that raise vulnerability (exposure, sensitivity) multiply the numerator and indicators that lower it (adaptive capacity) multiply the denominator, K = product(bad) / product(good). Presets for flood, extreme heat and earthquake/evacuation plus a fully custom index. Raw values are extracted from layers automatically: building coverage, floor area ratio, area-weighted floors and categories, road length shares, nearest distances, raster zonal means and circular aspect. Five classes by geometric interval, Jenks, quantile or equal interval; per-region dominant drivers; leave-one-indicator-out sensitivity; weighted composite index with multi-hazard diagnosis. Source layers are never modified; each hazard is saved as a named layer style.
Outputs: single-file HTML report with charts and maps, multi-sheet Excel workbook without extra libraries, 300 DPI PNG charts, and two Processing algorithms. The interface is in Turkish.