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# Module: safe.impact_functions.earthquake.itb_earthquake_fatality_model

class `safe.impact_functions.earthquake.itb_earthquake_fatality_model.``ITBFatalityFunction`

  Indonesian Earthquake Fatality Model

  This model was developed by Institut Tecknologi Bandung (ITB) and implemented by Dr Hadi Ghasemi, Geoscience Australia

  Reference:

  Indonesian Earthquake Building-Damage and Fatality Models and Post Disaster Survey Guidelines Development, Bali, 27-28 February 2012, 54pp.

  Algorithm:

  In this study, the same functional form as Allen (2009) is adopted to express fatality rate as a function of intensity (see Eq. 10 in the report). The Matlab built-in function (fminsearch) for Nelder-Mead algorithm is used to estimate the model parameters. The objective function (L2G norm) that is minimised during the optimisation is the same as the one used by Jaiswal et al. (2010).

  The coefficients used in the indonesian model are x=0.62275231, y=8.03314466, zeta=2.15

  Allen, T. I., Wald, D. J., Earle, P. S., Marano, K. D., Hotovec, A. J., Lin, K., and Hearne, M., 2009. An Atlas of ShakeMaps and population exposure catalog for earthquake loss modeling, Bull. Earthq. Eng. 7, 701-718.

  Jaiswal, K., and Wald, D., 2010. An empirical model for global earthquake fatality estimation, Earthq. Spectra 26, 1017-1037.

  Caveats and limitations:

  The current model is the result of the above mentioned workshop and reflects the best available information. However, the current model has a number of issues listed below and is expected to evolve further over time.

  1 - The model is based on limited number of observed fatality
    rates during 4 past fatal events.
  2 - The model clearly over-predicts the fatality rates at
    intensities higher than VIII.
  3 - The model only estimates the expected fatality rate for a given
    intensity level; however the associated uncertainty for the proposed model is not addressed.
  4 - There are few known mistakes in developing the current model:
    - rounding MMI values to the nearest 0.5,
    - Implementing Finite-Fault models of candidate events, and
    - consistency between selected GMPEs with those in use by BMKG. These issues will be addressed by ITB team in the final report.

  :author Hadi Ghasemi :rating 3

  :param requires category==’hazard’ and subcategory==’earthquake’ and layertype==’raster’ and unit==’MMI’

  :param requires category==’exposure’ and subcategory==’population’ and layertype==’raster’

  `run`(layers)

    Indonesian Earthquake Fatality Model

    Input
      layers: List of layers expected to contain
        H: Raster layer of MMI ground shaking P: Raster layer of population density

This module forms part of the InaSAFE tool.

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