Source code for safe.engine.impact_functions_for_testing.itb_fatality_model_org

from safe.impact_functions.core import FunctionProvider
from safe.impact_functions.core import get_hazard_layer, get_exposure_layer
from safe.impact_functions.core import get_question
from safe.storage.raster import Raster
from safe.common.utilities import ugettext as tr
from safe.common.tables import Table, TableRow

import numpy

# This was the original version, producing a map of fatalities.
# Howeve, the active one has evolved so that the map is
# showing displacement. Also, the individual fatality numbers
# per MMI band is retained in the original for testing purposes


[docs]class ITBFatalityFunctionOrg(FunctionProvider): """Indonesian Earthquake Fatality Model This model was developed by Institut Tecknologi Bandung (ITB) and implemented by Dr Hadi Ghasemi, Geoscience Australia Reference: Indonesian Earthquake Building-Damage and Fatality Models and Post Disaster Survey Guidelines Development, Bali, 27-28 February 2012, 54pp. Algorithm: In this study, the same functional form as Allen (2009) is adopted to express fatality rate as a function of intensity (see Eq. 10 in the report). The Matlab built-in function (fminsearch) for Nelder-Mead algorithm is used to estimate the model parameters. The objective function (L2G norm) that is minimised during the optimisation is the same as the one used by Jaiswal et al. (2010). The coefficients used in the indonesian model are x=0.62275231, y=8.03314466, zeta=2.15 Allen, T. I., Wald, D. J., Earle, P. S., Marano, K. D., Hotovec, A. J., Lin, K., and Hearne, M., 2009. An Atlas of ShakeMaps and population exposure catalog for earthquake loss modeling, Bull. Earthq. Eng. 7, 701-718. Jaiswal, K., and Wald, D., 2010. An empirical model for global earthquake fatality estimation, Earthq. Spectra 26, 1017-1037. Caveats and limitations: The current model is the result of the above mentioned workshop and reflects the best available information. However, the current model has a number of issues listed below and is expected to evolve further over time. 1 - The model is based on limited number of observed fatality rates during 4 past fatal events. 2 - The model clearly over-predicts the fatality rates at intensities higher than VIII. 3 - The model only estimates the expected fatality rate for a given intensity level; however the associated uncertainty for the proposed model is not addressed. 4 - There are few known mistakes in developing the current model: - rounding MMI values to the nearest 0.5, - Implementing Finite-Fault models of candidate events, and - consistency between selected GMPEs with those in use by BMKG. These issues will be addressed by ITB team in the final report. :author Hadi Ghasemi :rating 3 :param requires category=='hazard' and \ subcategory=='earthquake' and \ layertype=='raster' and \ unit=='MMI' :param requires category=='exposure' and \ subcategory=='population' and \ layertype=='raster' """ title = tr('Die')
[docs] def run(self, layers): """Indonesian Earthquake Fatality Model Input layers: List of layers expected to contain H: Raster layer of MMI ground shaking P: Raster layer of population density """ # Establish model coefficients x = 0.62275231 y = 8.03314466 # Tolerance for transparency tolerance = 0.01 # Extract input layers intensity = get_hazard_layer(layers) population = get_exposure_layer(layers) question = get_question(intensity.get_name(), population.get_name(), self) # Extract data grids H = intensity.get_data() # Ground Shaking P = population.get_data() # Population Density # Calculate population affected by each MMI level # FIXME (Ole): this range is 2-9. Should 10 be included? mmi_range = range(2, 10) number_of_exposed = {} number_of_fatalities = {} # Calculate fatality rates for observed Intensity values (H # based on ITB power model R = numpy.zeros(H.shape) for mmi in mmi_range: # Identify cells where MMI is in class i mask = (H > mmi - 0.5) * (H <= mmi + 0.5) # Count population affected by this shake level I = numpy.where(mask, P, 0) # Calculate expected number of fatalities per level fatality_rate = numpy.power(10.0, x * mmi - y) F = fatality_rate * I # Sum up numbers for map R += F # Fatalities # Generate text with result for this study # This is what is used in the real time system exposure table number_of_exposed[mmi] = numpy.nansum(I.flat) number_of_fatalities[mmi] = numpy.nansum(F.flat) # Set resulting layer to NaN when less than a threshold. This is to # achieve transparency (see issue #126). R[R < tolerance] = numpy.nan # Total statistics total = int(round(numpy.nansum(P.flat) / 1000) * 1000) # Compute number of fatalities fatalities = int(round(numpy.nansum(number_of_fatalities.values()) / 1000)) * 1000 # Generate impact report table_body = [question, TableRow([tr('Groundshaking (MMI)'), tr('# people exposed')], header=True)] # Table of people exposed to each shake level for mmi in mmi_range: s = str(int(number_of_exposed[mmi])) row = TableRow([mmi, s]) table_body.append(row) # Add table of fatalities per mmi level (for testing) table_body.append(TableRow([tr('Groundshaking (MMI)'), tr('# Fatalities')], header=True)) for mmi in mmi_range: s = str(int(number_of_fatalities[mmi])) row = TableRow([mmi, s]) table_body.append(row) # Add total fatality estimate s = str(int(fatalities)).rjust(10) table_body.append(TableRow([tr('Number of fatalities'), s], header=True)) # Add estimate of total population in area s = str(int(total)).rjust(10) table_body.append(TableRow([tr('Total number of people'), s], header=True)) table_body.append(TableRow(tr('Action Checklist:'), header=True)) if fatalities > 0: table_body.append(tr('Are there enough victim identification ' 'units available for %i people?') % fatalities) table_body.append(TableRow(tr('Notes'), header=True)) table_body.append(tr('Fatality model is from ' 'Institute of Teknologi Bandung 2012.')) table_body.append(tr('Population numbers rounded to nearest 1000.')) impact_summary = Table(table_body).toNewlineFreeString() impact_table = impact_summary map_title = tr('Earthquake impact to population') # Create style info dynamically classes = numpy.linspace(numpy.nanmin(R.flat[:]), numpy.nanmax(R.flat[:]), 5) style_classes = [dict(colour='#EEFFEE', quantity=classes[0], transparency=100, label=tr('%.2f people/cell') % classes[0]), dict(colour='#FFFF7F', quantity=classes[1], transparency=30), dict(colour='#E15500', quantity=classes[2], transparency=30, label=tr('%.2f people/cell') % classes[2]), dict(colour='#E4001B', quantity=classes[3], transparency=30), dict(colour='#730000', quantity=classes[4], transparency=30, label=tr('%.2f people/cell') % classes[4])] style_info = dict(target_field=None, style_classes=style_classes) # Create new layer and return L = Raster(R, projection=population.get_projection(), geotransform=population.get_geotransform(), keywords={'impact_summary': impact_summary, 'total_population': total, 'total_fatalities': fatalities, 'impact_table': impact_table, 'map_title': map_title}, name=tr('Estimated fatalities'), style_info=style_info) # Maybe return a shape file with contours instead return L